BITCOIN IS CRASHING: What’s Happening? [UPDATED]

UPDATE March 9 2026: Reassessing the short-term trend and targets

Shifting dynamics have dramatically altered the technical landscape we observed at the beginning of the year. While initial signals strongly pointed to a massive breakout, the reality of recent price action demands a fresh, objective look at the data to understand where the dominant cryptocurrency is truly heading next.

The Tesla comparison misfire and recent price action

Earlier this year, the setup closely mirrored the accumulation phase seen in Tesla before its massive rally. At the time, prices were moving laterally while the Market Mood Meter was skyrocketing. Unfortunately, what happened next was a technical misfire. Although the indicators successfully crossed the zero line, they quickly pushed into overbought territory without generating any meaningful upward price movement. Instead of a breakout, the momentum stalled, and prices eventually started to crash.

Why waiting for a clear signal is crucial

Right now, the situation is incredibly interesting, but patience is required. Looking at the Forecaster, prices are currently hovering in a very low range on the chart, and the Market Mood Meter has returned to an oversold situation. We are starting to see an early bullish divergence form, but it is definitively not the time to buy just yet.

The primary reason to hold off is that the momentum indicator has not yet crossed back over the zero line. Until we receive that definitive confirmation signal that the bear market structure has broken, the path of least resistance remains downward.

COT report insights and the gap index

To understand how deep this correction could go, we have to look under the hood using a multi-layer analysis. By analyzing the COT report—specifically comparing Asset Managers to Non-Commercial traders—and applying the 1-year Gap Index within the Forecaster, a clear pattern emerges.

The Gap Index has officially entered the red area, which historically signals that prices are becoming fundamentally cheap and presenting a buying opportunity. However, analyzing past cycles shows that when the indicator first hits this red zone, prices almost always experience one final flush lower before they truly skyrocket. The overbought and oversold metrics confirm that while prices are getting low, we have not yet reached the absolute bottom of this current downtrend.

Seasonality warnings and the $50,000 target

Adding seasonality into the mix paints a cautious short-term picture. Current data shows a very high correlation between this year’s price action, the patterns of 2024, and historical midterm years. This specific seasonal alignment suggests we could easily experience another drop of more than 20% from current levels.

Given this lack of trend reversal confirmation, there is a strong probability that Bitcoin could test the $50,000 support level. When weighing the data, we have a pure projection tool hinting at a potential 30% upward bounce, but it is heavily contradicted by three stronger metrics: the COT report, the overbought/oversold oscillators, and seasonality. In trading, listening to three converging signals is always safer than betting on a single isolated projection.

The long-term vision remains intact

Despite the short-term expectation that Bitcoin will drop again, the macroeconomic outlook has never been stronger. Any further downward movement toward the $50,000 mark should be viewed as a massive opportunity to accumulate at heavily discounted prices. The immediate trend may be testing our patience, but in the long run, the trajectory toward the $1 million milestone remains a highly viable endgame.

UPDATE – January 1, 2026

The technical setup for Bitcoin currently mirrors the exact conditions seen on Tesla in early 2025, just before its massive rally. The Overbought/Oversold section of the Forecaster highlights three critical convergence points:

1. Advance DPO: The indicator is green, signaling a statistically significant low.

2. Market Mood Meter: While price action remains lateral, the internal momentum indicator is skyrocketing and has crossed the zero line—a massive bullish divergence indicating accumulation.

3. Wyckoff & Speed: The Wyckoff cycle has shifted to accumulation (buyers > sellers), and the Speed indicator is accelerating.

Seasonality: Bitcoin is tracking the 2019/2020 cycle (pre-halving/recovery). In 2019, this pattern resulted in a +236% move. Forecast: Based on this fractal and the accumulation data, Bitcoin is projected to reach $169,000 in 2026.

UPDATE – October 9

The September 24 analysis, which highlighted Bitcoin’s entry into one of its most favorable seasonal periods, finds even more robust confirmation today. Where we previously relied on statistical tendencies, we can now take a step further thanks to the AI-powered projection tools on the Forecaster platform. The analysis evolves from historical trends to scenario-based forecasting, with results that further strengthen the bullish thesis.

From Seasonality to AI: A Projection That Confirms the Path

As previously noted, the correlation between Bitcoin’s 2025 price action and its 3-year seasonal average is extremely high (84.45%). This data suggested potential strength heading into October. Now, Forecaster’s AI projection engine—which identifies historical patterns with high similarity to map potential future paths—fully validates this outlook.

The projection generated on September 24 remains fully aligned with the current price movement. Specifically, the chart’s green line, which represents the average of all bullish historical cases identified by the algorithm, continues to track the real market closely, reinforcing the scenario’s credibility.

According to this analysis, Bitcoin could reach price targets between $136,000 and $138,000 by mid-October, before a possible consolidation phase. This signals not just a temporary bounce but a broader bullish structure, rooted in historical analogues and confirmed by advanced predictive models.

AI Projection Backed by High-Performance Historical Matches

The strength of this projection lies in the quality of the historical scenarios the AI has identified. Among the five most correlated bullish cases, the period from February 28 to March 27, 2019, stands out as particularly relevant. That scenario delivered:

• An impressive performance of +35.15%.

• A minimal maximum drawdown of just -0.81%.

• A maximum rally of +40.32%.

This historical precedent suggests a very favorable risk-reward profile. Other bullish analogues also support a constructive outlook:

• October 2016: +21.18% gain.

• September 2016: +9.64% gain.

• March 2016: +8.11% gain.

Interestingly, even though the algorithm identified two “bearish” historical scenarios, one of them surprisingly closed with a +12.94% return, further reinforcing the dominance of positive outcomes in market structures similar to today’s.

⚠️ Caution: Pattern ≠ Prediction

While the data and projections are extremely encouraging, it is crucial to remember that these tools offer scenarios, not certainties. Unexpected macroeconomic events, regulatory actions, or sudden shifts in market sentiment can always override any historical pattern. Risk management and proper position sizing remain, as always, critically important.

Update Conclusion

The bullish thesis outlined in late September has grown stronger. The convergence of historical seasonal analysis and AI-powered projections paints a high-probability bullish scenario for the coming weeks. The historical analogues not only confirm the direction but also suggest significant upside potential against a historically contained risk.

UPDATE – September 24

The September 24 update on Bitcoin confirms what had already been highlighted in earlier analyses: the cryptocurrency is approaching one of the most favorable periods of the year. Data from the Forecaster platform, through both seasonality and projection models, point to a scenario with strong bullish potential.

Seasonality: Historical Data Signals Strength

On Forecaster’s seasonality page, the three-year and five-year averages clearly show a bullish trend:

• Last 3 years: 66% of cases ended positive, with an average return above 52%.

• Last 5 years: 80% of cases were bullish, with an average return around 73%.

The current year is highly correlated with these past averages, moving almost identically. Over the last 10 years, 70% of cases were bullish, with an average return of 96%.

By month, October and November stand out as the most bullish period of the year for Bitcoin.

Projections: A 100% Bullish Probability

Forecaster’s one-month projection is even more striking. While the three-month model shows no clear cases, the short-term outlook highlights:

• 100% bullish probability, with the maximum robustness score (five stars).

• Five historical cases with identical patterns, all followed by further gains.

This projection suggests a potential average return above 37%, pointing to the possibility of Bitcoin reaching over $150,000.

Seasonality and Projections Align

The key factor is the convergence of two independent approaches. Seasonality indicates potential gains between 50% and 100%, while the projection model points to around 40% upside. Both align on a strong bullish outlook.

When different layers of analysis confirm the same story, as in Forecaster’s case, the reliability of the scenario increases.

Conclusion

The September 24 update reinforces the view that Bitcoin is entering one of its most bullish seasonal windows. Historical seasonality and robust projections highlight October and November as high-potential months.

If past dynamics repeat, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant rally, supported by multiple independent signals pointing in the same direction.

UPDATE – September 3

This is a follow-up to the article I published on August 28. Everything we expected back then is now being confirmed by the data and market behavior.

A New Seasonal Turning Point

Bitcoin has just lost more than 10% from its all-time high, reached at the beginning of August. After a month of steady decline, many are again questioning whether the upward cycle has come to an end. Yet the data tells a different story: history suggests that the first days of September often mark the transition from weakness to strength.

Looking at the seasonal analysis on Forecaster, the correlation with past three-year patterns remains striking. This recent retracement was not only predictable, but almost textbook. Statistics confirm it: over the last five years, short trades during this specific time window worked 80% of the time, with an average gain of about +13%. But here’s the most important part: as soon as September begins, everything changes.

The detrended view of seasonality is even clearer. By removing the long-term trend and focusing only on recurring price movements, we can see that Bitcoin’s current path is almost identical to past cycles. And the numbers are powerful: in the past five years, the probability of a profitable long trade in this exact September window has been 100%, with average returns of +23% to +26%. In other words, according to seasonality, we are very close to a bottom — and the conditions for a new bull phase are forming right now.

Smart Money in Action

Seasonality is one thing, but there is also the matter of institutional and political capital flowing into Bitcoin. Forecaster’s U.S. Government Tracker, which monitors in real time the financial disclosures of American politicians, reveals something particularly interesting: several figures are buying heavily into Bitcoin.

One name stands out: Brandon Gill, a young Republican from Texas, just 31 years old, with a background as an investment banker at Nomura in New York before moving into politics in 2025 alongside Trump. Despite being new to Washington, his trades are already making headlines. According to the tracker, he has invested large sums in Bitcoin, both directly and through the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, with purchases of $250,000, $1 million, and again multiple tranches of $250,000.

This is not casual speculation. Gill knows the financial world from the inside, and his aggressive positioning suggests that political and banking circles are increasingly convinced of Bitcoin’s role in the future monetary system. The recent approval of the “Genius Act” in the United States, which makes it easier to buy Bitcoin directly through banks, reinforces this view.

The Gold Analogy

Skeptics often forget how similar dynamics played out with gold. Just ten years ago, few would have believed that gold could climb from just above $1,000 per ounce to where it is today. The same disbelief we now hear about Bitcoin was once common with gold. Yet the outcome speaks for itself: those who accumulated patiently were rewarded.

Bitcoin is likely following a parallel trajectory. Historical seasonality shows that the summer retracement is nearing its end, sentiment indicators point to oversold conditions, and now even influential political figures are buying aggressively.

The conclusion is straightforward: while panic dominates the short term, the data continues to support the long-term bullish thesis. If history repeats itself, September could mark the beginning of the next powerful rally.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE from AUGUST

Key Points

• I was one of the first in Italy to invest in Bitcoin, entering at just $200 per coin.

• I firmly believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million within the next five to ten years.

• Current market drops are part of seasonal patterns, not signs of collapse.

I have been passionate about Bitcoin since the very beginning. In fact, I was among the earliest investors in Italy, buying in when the cryptocurrency was trading at just $200. That experience not only shaped my perspective but also strengthened my conviction: Bitcoin is destined to rise massively over the long run. I remain convinced that within less than ten years, perhaps even five, we will see Bitcoin at $1 million.

This belief helps me stay calm during market turbulence. Every time Bitcoin falls, as it is doing now, my inbox fills with messages. Just yesterday, I counted seventeen people writing to me in only five minutes, panicking about the price drop. But the truth is simple: nothing extraordinary is happening..

Understanding Bitcoin Through Seasonality

The first key to interpreting the current market is seasonality. Using Forecaster, a powerful analysis tool, we can see that Bitcoin’s price this year is moving with a very high correlation to its performance over the past three and five years. The charts make it clear: the same retracement patterns are repeating, almost to perfection.

Forecaster offers two views of seasonality, the standard version and the detrended version, and both reveal that the current dip is entirely consistent with historical behavior. Looking at past data:

• In the last three years, going short during this seasonal window returned on average +14.3%.

• In the last five years, the success rate was 80%, with an average return of +13.7%.

So, what we are experiencing right now is not unusual volatility but a recurring seasonal tendency. Summer months have historically been bearish for Bitcoin, with retracements that scare the market but ultimately create new opportunities.

From Panic to Perspective

Let’s put the current correction into context. Historical seasonality data shows that August and September are consistently weak months for Bitcoin. Even when extending the analysis to the 10-year seasonal average, the trend remains clear: this period is marked by retracements, often in the range of -8% to -10%, and occasionally deeper. For example:

• Last year saw a maximum drop of -18%.

• Other years recorded dips of -13%, with the average closer to -10%.

This means that the present downturn is not only expected but also within the normal range of past behavior. Yet, every time Bitcoin dips, the same fear emerges: “This time it’s different.” In reality, it rarely is.

Oversold Conditions and Market Mood

Another useful perspective comes from Forecaster’s Market Mood Meter, which I consider one of the best indicators available. Recent data shows a divergence: while Bitcoin reached new highs earlier, sentiment indicators highlighted weakness. That divergence correctly anticipated the pullback we are seeing now.

At the moment, the Market Mood Meter indicates that Bitcoin is approaching oversold territory. Historically, such conditions often mark the beginning of a new upward phase. If the seasonal patterns continue to play out, early September could be the turning point for a strong rebound.

Long-Term Conviction

Short-term fluctuations should never distract from the bigger picture. Personally, I continue to accumulate Bitcoin during these corrections. Just last week, our group invested $50,000 into Bitcoin, confident that the price could rise to $150,000 before the end of the year. Prominent figures, including politicians and institutional players, are also buying aggressively because they recognize Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

This is why I remain calm while others panic. For me, it is simple: Bitcoin retraces in summer, it scares the market, and then it resumes its upward path. Nothing has changed. The long-term trend remains firmly intact.

Conclusion

The lesson is straightforward: Bitcoin is behaving exactly as it has in the past. Seasonality, market mood indicators, and historical averages all point to the same reality, this correction is part of the natural cycle, not the end of the story.

If history repeats itself, the current oversold conditions could soon give way to a new rally, possibly starting in early September. Until then, the best strategy is patience. Bitcoin has always rewarded those who hold through turbulence, and I remain convinced that its long-term destination is far above today’s levels, perhaps even reaching $1 million within the next decade.

ORIGINAL VIDEO: