SHOULD WE BUY (again) TESLA AFTER THE DROP?
📌 Key points:
Tesla stock faces rising volatility due to Elon Musk’s growing political involvement and recent setbacks in autonomous driving.
Regulatory, legal, and geopolitical risks are mounting, making short-term investments in Tesla particularly risky.
Long-term potential remains strong, especially in AI, robotics, and self-driving technology — but only at a more attractive price point.
Tesla’s Political Turbulence: Is the Stock Still Worth the Risk?
Ever since Elon Musk officially stepped into the political arena, Tesla’s stock has entered a period of instability rarely seen before. His recent announcement of potentially launching his own political party ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has only fueled the uncertainty and markets reacted immediately.
As always, my analysis is grounded in real data processed through Forecaster, the software I rely on for every evaluation. But numbers alone don’t tell the full story. Let’s break down what’s really happening at Tesla, and whether investing in the company today is a smart move or a dangerous bet.
Robotaxi Dreams Turn Into a Reality Check
Tesla’s much-hyped launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, has so far fallen flat. While a few influencers praised the experience, the broader picture is far less impressive. Each vehicle still includes a human safety operator, contradicting the idea of “fully autonomous driving.” Worse, the robotaxis aren’t the futuristic Cyber Cabs Musk once teased, but simply Model 3 and Model Y cars with updated software.
There have been multiple reports of erratic driving, hard braking, and police involvement triggered by concerned citizens. These issues have even prompted a formal investigation by the U.S. traffic safety agency NHTSA.
Meanwhile, competitors like Waymo (owned by Google/Alphabet) are already operating truly driverless vehicles in several U.S. cities. Compared to them, Tesla seems to be falling behind, and fast.
When Politics Enters the Boardroom
Musk’s shift from political donor to would-be political leader could become a serious liability for Tesla. In the past, he kept a certain distance from politics while supporting candidates behind the scenes. Now, he’s stepping into the spotlight, a move that may not sit well with local officials who play a key role in approving autonomous driving projects.
On the global stage, the risks are even greater. Tesla depends heavily on China, which accounts for 20–25% of the company’s global sales. If Musk becomes a prominent U.S. political figure with a strong ideological stance, especially one critical of China, Beijing could choose to retaliate by limiting Tesla’s access to the Chinese market in favor of domestic brands.
This isn’t just theoretical. It’s a real, material risk.
A Legal Time Bomb for Musk?
There’s another wildcard: Musk’s legal standing as Tesla CEO. Under Delaware corporate law, shareholders can sue if they believe an executive is no longer fulfilling their fiduciary duties. This happened in 2022 when Musk bought Twitter, though the case was eventually dismissed.
Today, however, things are different. The tension between Musk and parts of the political and financial world has grown deeper. If investors feel that Musk’s political activities interfere with his role as CEO, a lawsuit demanding his removal could gain serious traction and a successful outcome would send shockwaves through Tesla.
Short-Term Outlook: Too Many Unknowns
Based on my Forecaster analysis, my short-term view (1–3 years) on Tesla is clear: this is not the time to buy. The combination of political drama, legal risks, commercial challenges, and regulatory uncertainty makes the stock too dangerous. This isn’t just about market volatility, we’re talking about structural issues that could affect Tesla for months or even years.
At this point, betting on Tesla feels more like an act of faith than a calculated investment. Yes, the stock may be trading below its fair value based on fundamentals, but fundamental analysis can’t predict political scandals, reputational damage, or sudden lawsuits. However, Forecaster can still help investors navigate this uncertainty thanks to the new “News” section available for each stock. By collecting and displaying the most recent headlines, it offers a broader context that goes beyond the numbers, making it easier to assess risks that traditional financial metrics might miss.
Looking Ahead: High Risk, High Potential
That said, Tesla isn’t doomed, far from it. If we shift our time horizon to 5–10 years, the company still shows enormous promise, especially in AI and robotics.
Unlike most automakers, Tesla is building its own vision-based autonomous driving system in-house, using cameras and neural networks rather than expensive lidar sensors. This makes their system potentially more affordable, scalable, and adaptable over time.
Tesla also has an unmatched advantage when it comes to data, having logged billions of miles through its vehicles. Combine that with the new xAI venture, its large language model Grok, and the humanoid robot Optimus, now capable of autonomous movement and folding clothes, and you get a company that’s pushing into next-gen technology in a way few others can match.
If Full Self-Driving ever receives broad regulatory approval, Tesla could generate tens of billions in recurring revenue annually from the service alone.
When Might Tesla Be a Buy Again?
So the big question is: when does Tesla become attractive again? Based on both Forecaster’s valuation and my own opinion, a price around $150 per share, close to the lows seen in 2023–2024, could be a reasonable re-entry point.
At that level, long-term investors could consider a position, while fully accepting the volatility and Musk-related baggage that comes with it.
Right now, Tesla isn’t a stock to buy but it’s not one to ignore, either. The long-term vision is compelling, thanks to Tesla’s edge in AI, software, and robotics. But the short-term risks are real and growing, especially with Musk at the center of so much political and legal controversy.
As always, the decision is up to each investor. But if your goal is to protect capital and make rational, risk-adjusted decisions, there are safer companies out there with clearer focus and fewer distractions.
