THIS COMMODITY IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE! Here’s Why…

📌 Key points:

• 📊 Producers turning bullish: The COT Report shows gas producers are now net long, just like in 2020 before a major rally.

• 📉 Price near bottom, strong seasonality: Forecaster highlights an oversold market and a 20-year seasonal pattern with 80% positive years.

• 🔧 Smart execution with Trive CFDs: The long position is opened via Trive’s natural gas CFD—an efficient tool for leveraged commodity trading.

The natural gas market is at a critical point, and signals of a potential upward reversal are becoming more and more evident. In this article, I want to share my full analysis with you. Why I’m taking a long position, what instrument I’ll use, and how Forecaster has helped me build a data-driven and confident strategy. It’s an essential tool for anyone who wants to trade based on facts, not guesses.

Looking at the NGQ5 Future: Where It All Starts

The instrument I’m tracking is NGQ5, a natural gas future available directly on Metatrader through Trive, a fully regulated broker in Europe. Trive is the platform I use for leveraged trades on natural gas, and I strongly recommend it to anyone who wants to trade commodities seriously. Just type in NGQ5 on Metatrader to bring it up.

Now let’s dive into the actual analysis.

COT Report: producers are turning bullish

One of the first things that caught my eye was the COT (Commitment of Traders) Report, which I can easily check using the Forecaster. Here’s what stood out: producers, companies that physically extract gas, have shifted to a net long position. That’s a rare and powerful signal.

This exact setup happened back in 2020: producers suddenly flipped long, and shortly after, natural gas prices skyrocketed. The pattern is repeating, and recognizing these kinds of cyclical setups is key in any serious trading strategy.

Statistical Insight from Forecaster: Near Historical Lows

From a statistical standpoint, the Overbought/Oversold section of the Forecaster shows that the current price zone is historically associated with potential market bottoms. The Market Mood Meter confirms that we’re in an extreme oversold area, often the kind of environment where strong rebounds begin.

In short, the numbers favor a long position.

Seasonality: The Most Important Factor

One of my favorite tools in Forecaster is the Seasonality module. It automatically identifies the seasonal trend that best matches the current price action. In this case, it’s the 20-year seasonal pattern, which suggests that prices typically rise strongly from now through the end of November.

Here are the key stats:

• 75% of the years show a positive return
• Average gain: +29%
• Even the negative years saw meaningful temporary rallies (+9%, +12%) before ending slightly lower.

If we consider those intra-year swings too, the real probability of positive movement exceeds 80%. This is one of the most favorable seasonal setups for natural gas we’ve seen in years.

Storage Levels: Demand Likely to Surge

Another key piece of the puzzle is fundamental: European gas storage levels. Data shared by colleagues in Malta shows that most European countries currently have reserves at about 50–60%.

However, new EU regulations require these reserves to hit 90% by December 1st. That means in the next two months, demand for natural gas will rise sharply.

It’s basic economics: when demand rises and supply stays the same, prices tend to go up. We’re setting up for a classic demand-driven rally. Just like in 2020.

Why I Trade Natural Gas with Trive and CFDs

To execute this trade, I’m using the natural gas CFD offered by Trive, which I believe is the most efficient way to go long on this commodity. Trive gives me direct, regulated access to leverage and seamless trading through Metatrader.

Sure, some might consider ETFs or ETCs, but they’re not ideal for commodities due to higher costs, roll management issues, and lower efficiency. For precise, tactical trades, CFDs are the better choice.

My suggestion? Open a separate account for leveraged trades on commodities and forex. Don’t mix strategies. A small, dedicated account with Trive is a smart move for the modern trader.

Final Thoughts: A Rational, Data-Driven Decision

My decision to go long on natural gas isn’t emotional—it’s based on a clear, structured process:

• Reviewing the COT Report

• Running a statistical and cyclical analysis

• Checking the most relevant seasonal pattern

• Looking at fundamental storage data

• Executing with the most suitable instrument: the CFD on Trive

And I’ve done all of this with the help of Forecaster, which continues to be an essential tool for serious, data-driven trading. If you want to approach the markets with confidence and clarity, Forecaster should be part of your toolkit.