Brent Crude Oil (BZ) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns

Last modified: March 19, 2025

Monthly Seasonality on Brent Crude Oil

Weekly Seasonality on Brent Crude Oil

Daily Seasonality on Brent (Strong days)

Best Long Trade on Brent (Bullish Setups)

Best Short Trades on Brent (Bearish Setups)

Brent Crude Oil (BZUSD) seasonality in financial markets is a well-documented phenomenon where Brent Crude Oil prices tend to follow recurring patterns throughout the year. Here’s an analysis of the main characteristics of Brent Crude Oil’s seasonality.

Monthly Seasonality on Brent Crude Oil:

Brent Crude Oil Monthly Seasonality: Trends of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year

December – June: Period of Strength

The period between December and June represents a strong seasonal phase for Brent Crude Oil, with long positions prevailing for seven months. The only exception is March, where short positions dominate significantly.

July – November: Beginning of a Short Trend

From July to November, Brent Crude Oil enters a seasonal bearish phase, with short positions prevailing throughout the period. The only exception is August in the 10-year average, where long positions have dominated 60 percent of the time

Monthly average

100% LONG

50% LONG

50% SHORT

100% SHORT

Weekly Seasonality on Brent Crude Oil:

Brent Crude Oil’s Weekly Price Movement: Historical Biases

Monday: Mixed sentiment, with long positions succeeding 51% over 5 years, 51% over 7 years and Short positions succeeding 53% over 10 Years.
Tuesday: Mixed sentiment continues, with long positions prevailing with 51% over 7 years, whilst over 5 and 10 Years the ratios is 50/50
Wednesday – Fridays: Increased long positions success rate, With Friday as the strongest date of the week exhibiting 53% over 5 years, 55% over 7 years, 55% over 5 years,

Daily Seasonality on Brent (Strong days):

Examining daily strategies that have historically succeeded, we can identify a few standout dates.

Long Trades: April 23rd, May 5th, May 15th, and June 18th have all recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10 years.

Short Trades: Historically, for Brent Crude Oil, there are a few dates that have achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year time frame: July 5th, August 1st, August 14th, and November 27th.

Best Long Trade on Brent (Bullish Setups):

Mid-November – Mid-January: Strongest Bullish Period

Brent Crude Oil has historically performed well in this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 70% over 10 years (Average Return 11,6%)
- 71,4% over 7 years (Average Return 10,5%)
- 80% over 5 years (Average Return 12,5%)