Cocoa (CC) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns

Last modified: March 20, 2025

Monthly Seasonality on Cocoa

Weekly Seasonality on Cocoa

Daily Seasonality on Cocoa (Strong Days)

Best Long Trades on Cocoa (Bullish Setups)

Best Short Trade on Cocoa (Bearish Setups)

Cocoa prices exhibit strong seasonal trends due to supply cycles, weather conditions, and global demand. Below is a comprehensive analysis of Cocoa’s seasonality in financial markets.

Monthly Seasonality on Cocoa:

Cocoa Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year

January – March: Gradual Bullish Momentum

January: Cocoa prices often begin the year with mixed movement. Short positions have prevailed 60% over 10 years, while long positions succeeded 57% over 7 years and 60% over 5 years.
February: Bullish momentum strengthens, with long positions prevailing 70% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
March: Cocoa continues its upward trend, with long positions outperforming 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.

April – May: Transition with Strengthening Bullishness

April: Historically a weaker month, with long positions prevailing 50% over 10 years, while short positions dominated 57% over 7 years and 60% over 5 years.
May: Bullish sentiment gains traction, with long positions succeeding 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.

June – July: Period of Volatility

June: Short positions tend to dominate, with a success rate of 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
July: Long positions gain momentum, succeeding 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 100% over 5 years.

August – September: A Mixed Period

August: A relatively positive month, with long positions succeeding 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
September: A bearish tilt, as short positions prevailed 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.

October – November: Seasonal Trends Take Effect

October: Cocoa prices tend to be volatile in this period, with long positions showing historical dominance. However, October has been a short-biased month in the last 5 years, with a 60% short position win rate.

December: A Mixed Close

December: A month of conflicting trends, where long positions succeeded 60% over 5 years, 57% over 7 years, while short positions dominated with a 60% success rate over 10 years.

Monthly average

100% LONG

50% LONG

50% SHORT

100% SHORT

Weekly Seasonality on Cocoa:

Cocoa’s Weekly Price Movement: Historical Tendencies for Gains

Monday: A mixed day, with long positions succeeding 53% over 5 and 7 years.
Tuesday: A mild bullish day, with long positions at 54% over 5 and 7 years, and 55% over 10 years.
Wednesday: A volatile session, with no clear trend.
Thursday – Friday: Generally bearish, with 52%-54% short signals.

Tuesdays have historically shown the strongest bullish momentum, while Thursdays and Fridays tend to be weaker.

Daily Seasonality on Cocoa (Strong Days):

Examining historical daily price action, these dates stand out:

Best Long Trades: 24th of August, 12th of December have recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10 years.
Best Short Trades: 5th January have historically shown 100% success rates for short trades over a 10-year period.

Best Long Trades on Cocoa (Bullish Setups):

October– Mid-April: Buy the Rally

This period marks a peak phase for Cocoa, characterized by a strong bullish sentiment. Long positions have historically prevailed:

40% of the time over 10 years
57.1% over 7 years
40% over 5 years

This period marks a peak phase for Cocoa, characterized by a Mixed sentiment. Long positions have had great returns, although most results derive from the last two year’s results.