Coffee (KC) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Coffee (KC) prices exhibit recurring seasonal patterns due to weather conditions, harvest cycles, and global demand fluctuations. Below is an analysis of Coffee’s historical seasonality.
Monthly Seasonality on Coffee:
Coffee Monthly Seasonality: Patterns of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year
January – March: Volatility and Bearish Bias
- January: Coffee prices often start the year with a moderate performance. Short positions have prevailed 60% over 10 years, while long positions succeeded 57% over 7 years and 60% over 5 years.
- February: Bearish momentum strengthens, with short positions prevailing 70% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
- March: The downward trend continues, with short positions succeeding 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
April – May: Transition Towards Bullish Momentum
- April: Historically a weaker month, with long positions prevailing 50% over 10 years, while short positions have dominated 57% over 7 years and 60% over 5 years.
- May: Bullish sentiment starts to emerge, with long positions succeeding 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
June – July: Increased Volatility
- June: Short positions tend to dominate, with 60% success over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
- July: A strong month for long positions, succeeding 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 100% over 5 years.
August – September: A Mixed Period
- August: A generally positive month, with long positions succeeding 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
- September: A shift towards bearishness, as short positions prevailed 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
October – November: Increased Volatility and Short Opportunities
- October: Historically weak, with short positions succeeding 65% over 10 years, 60% over 7 years, and 57% over 5 years.
- November: A continuation of bearish trends, with short positions prevailing 70% over 10 years, 65% over 7 years, and 75% over 5 years.
December: A Mixed Close to the Year
- December: Long positions historically succeeded 60% over 5 years, 57% over 7 years, while short positions won 60% over 10 years.
Monthly average
100% LONG
50% LONG
0%
50% SHORT
100% SHORT
Weekly Seasonality on Coffee:
Coffee’s Weekly Price Movement: Historical Patterns
- Monday: A day marked by negative sentiment, with short positions succeeding 52% of the time over 5 years and 7 years, and 53% over 10 years.
- Tuesday: A bullish day, with long positions prevailing 58% of the time over 5 years, 54% over 7 years, and 52% over 10 years.
- Wednesday: A slightly bullish day, with long positions prevailing 52% over 5 years, 51% over 7 years, and 52% over 10 years.
- Thursday – Friday: A period showing a tendency toward short positioning, with short positions prevailing 54% on average.
Tuesdays have historically exhibited the strongest bullish momentum, while Thursdays and Fridays tend to be “short days.”
Daily Seasonality on Coffee (Strong Days):
Analyzing Historical Daily Price Action: Key Dates
- Best Long Trades: The 12th of December has historically achieved a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7 years.
- Best Short Trades: The 29th of January, August 1st, and September 2nd have consistently recorded a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year period.
Best Long Trades on Coffee (Bullish Setups):
May– Mid-February: Seasonal Rally
- Coffee prices historically perform well in this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 60% over 10 years (Average Return of 39,2%)
- 71,4% over 7 years (Average Return of 44,1%)
- 80% over 5 years (Average Return of 50,2%)
Best Short Trade on Coffee(Bearish Setups):
Mid December – Start of January:
Coffee prices tends to decline from the end of December where some sort of peak was reached, until the first weeks of January to create a new low.
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