Copper (HG) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns

Copper’s monthly seasonality reveals clear cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year:

• January: Copper typically starts the year with moderate bullish sentiment, with long positions succeeding 50% over 10 years, 57.1% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
• February: Bullish sentiment tends to strengthen, with long positions succeeding 70% over 10 years, 57.1% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
• March: A transition month, where sentiment becomes more bearish, with short positions prevailing 60% over 10 years, 71.4% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
• April – First week of June: A peak period for copper, likely driven by increased industrial demand. Sentiment is mixed, with short positions prevailing 60% over 10 years, while long positions were stronger 57.1% over 7 years and 60% over 5 years.
• June – First week of July: The market often enters a weaker phase, with short positioning dominating over 5 and 7 years (60% and 57.1%, respectively), while the 10-year data shows an even split between long and short positions.
• First week of July – December: Another strong period for copper, with long positions historically succeeding 80% on average over 5 years, 57.1% over 7 years, and 60% over 10 years—a trend likely driven by global industries preparing for year-end activity.
• December: The year typically closes with mixed sentiment. While 67% of historical data shows a long bias, trading activity slows down.

Historically, the best months for long positions are April–June and September–November, while July–August tends to experience weaker bullish momentum.