Cotton (CTUSX) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Cotton exhibits strong seasonal trends influenced by planting cycles, weather conditions, and global textile demand. Below is a detailed breakdown of Cotton’s historical seasonality.
Monthly Seasonality on Cotton:
Cocoa Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year
August – January: Predominantly Bullish Phase
- August: The market enters a strong bullish period, with long positions historically succeeding across multiple timeframes.
- September: While the general trend remains bullish, short positions dominate over a 10-year period, signaling a potential pullback.
- October: The trend stays bullish, except over a 5-year timeframe, where short trades have shown an edge.
- November: The bullish momentum continues, with long positions outperforming in most cases.
- December – January: A consistently strong period, as long positions have historically dominated, supporting a continued bullish sentiment into the new year.
February – March: Bearish Correction
- February: A shift towards a weaker phase, where short positions start gaining ground.
- March: The bearish momentum strengthens, with short trades historically prevailing across different timeframes.
April: A Bullish Rebound
- April: Cotton prices typically regain strength, with long positions successfully outperforming short trades in this period.
May – July: A Predominantly Bearish Phase with Mixed July Performance
- May – June: The market enters a sustained bearish period, where short positions tend to outperform.
- July: A typically Bearish month in the last 5 Years, with long and short positions showing a 50/50 balance over 10 years.
Monthly average
100% LONG
50% LONG
0%
50% SHORT
100% SHORT
Weekly Seasonality on Cotton:
Cotton’s Weekly Price Movements: Historical Trends
- Monday: A mixed session, with long positions succeeding 53% over 5 years, Short positions 51% over 7 years and 52% over 10.
- Tuesday: A stronger bullish bias, with long trades prevailing 55% over 5 years, 52% over 7 years, and 50% over 10 years.
- Wednesday: bullish bias, with long trades prevailing 53% over 5 years, 53% over 7 years, and 51% over 10 years.
- Thursday: A mixed session, with long positions succeeding 51% over 10 years, Short positions 51% over 7 and 10 Years.
- Friday: The market tends to be bearish, with short positions prevailing 51%-53% on average.
Daily Seasonality on Cotton (Strong Days):
Certain key dates have shown consistent trading patterns:
- Best Long Trades: February 13th, February 18th, and September 10th have recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10 years.
- Best Short Trades: March 9th, September 17th, October 24th, and October 31st have historically achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year span.
Best Long Trades on Cotton (Bullish Setups):
July – Mid-January: Strongest Bullish Phase
Cotton prices typically experience a seasonal rally during this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 60% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 19%)
- 57% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 19,6%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 24,5%)
Best Short Trade on Cotton (Bearish Setups):
June:
Cotton prices typically experience a dip during this period, with Short positions prevailing:
- 60% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 10,9%)
- 71,4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 10,8%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 14,9%)
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