Crude Oil (CL) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Crude Oil follows distinct seasonal trends driven by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical influences, and economic activity. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of Crude Oil’s historical seasonality.
Monthly Seasonality on Crude Oil:
Crude Oil Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness
December – February
- December: The year often ends with long positions dominating through February. Long positions have a success rate of 60% over 5 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 10 years.
- January: The trend typically carries over from December. Long positions succeed 60% of the time over 5 years, 71% over 7 years, and 50% over 10 years.
- February: A slight bullish trend emerges, with long positions prevailing 80% over 5 years, 71% over 7 years, and 80% over 10 years.
March – April
- March: The market tends to shift toward a downtrend, with short positions outperforming at 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
- April: The downtrend persists in recent years, with short positions achieving a 60% win rate over 5 years. Long positions, however, succeed 57% over 7 years and 60% over 10 years.
May – June
- May: Long positions show moderate strength, succeeding 50% over 10 years and 80% over 5 years.
June: Market conditions fluctuate, but long positions maintain a slight edge, with success rates of 60% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
July – November: Bearish Sentiment Develops
The period from July to November has grown increasingly bearish in recent years, with short positions outperforming long positions. The win rate for shorts during this timeframe exceeds that of longs.
Monthly average
100% LONG
50% LONG
0%
50% SHORT
100% SHORT
Weekly Seasonality on Crude Oil:
Crude Oil’s Weekly Price Movements: Historical Trends
- Monday: A mixed day, with long positions succeeding 51% over 5 years and 52% over 7 years, but short positions take a slight edge with a 51% win rate over 10 years.
- Tuesday: A bullish tilt emerges, with long positions prevailing 53% over 5 years, 53% over 7 years, and 54% over 10 years.
- Wednesday: A strong session, with long positions holding a higher win rate overall of 55%, marking the strongest bullish momentum of the week.
- Thursday: The market favors long positions with a high win rate of 54% over the three time frames.
- Friday: Long positions maintain a higher win rate although weakening from Wednesday net higher probability.
Historically, every day of the week shows a higher win rate for long positions, except for Monday over a 10-year span, where shorts edge out at 51%. Wednesdays stand out with the strongest bullish trend, while Mondays exhibit the weakest.
Daily Seasonality on Crude Oil(Strong Days):
Best Long Trades on Crude Oil(Bullish Setups):
May – October: Strongest Bullish Phase
Crude Oil tends to experience a seasonal rally during this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 60% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 32,3%)
- 57% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 43,3%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 56,1%)
Best Short Trade on Crude Oil(Bearish Setups):
April:
- Crude Oil prices tend to decline from the start of April, making it an ideal period for short positions.
- Strategy: Enter short positions in April, close them and prepare for a possible rebound heading into May.
This strategy has succeeded:
- 80% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 10,7%)
- 71,4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 9,6%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 10,5%)
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