Gasoline (RB) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Gasoline follows a distinct seasonal pattern influenced by refinery operations, driving demand, and crude oil price fluctuations. Below is a detailed breakdown of Gasoline’s historical seasonality.
Monthly Seasonality on Gasoline:
Gasoline Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness
January – June: Dominant Bullish Phase
January: The year begins with a bullish sentiment, as long positions have historically succeeded 80% of the time over 5 years, 86% over 7 years, and 70% over 10 years.
February: The upward trend strengthens, with long positions prevailing 80% over 5 years, 86% over 7 years, and 90% over 10 years.
March: Gasoline continues to gain momentum, with long positions succeeding 80% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
April: A strong month, with long trades succeeding 70% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 61% over 5 years.
May: The bullish trend weakens, with long positions prevailing 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
June: A volatile but still bullish month, with long positions succeeding 70% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
July – September: Bearish Shift Begins
July: Market conditions become more uncertain, with short positions starting to gain traction as bearish pressure builds.
August: A key turning point where short positions take control, with short trades succeeding 70% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
September: Bearish sentiment deepens, with short positions prevailing 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
October: A Slightly Bullish Rebound
October: Unlike the previous months, October shows a slight recovery, with a balance between long and short positions. While the overall trend remains mixed, historical data suggests a moderate bullish edge compared to the preceding and upcoming bearish period.
November: Bearish Pressure Resumes
November: Selling pressure returns strongly, with short trades dominating 90% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
December: A Bullish Close to the Year
December: The market transitions back into bullish territory, as long positions have historically succeeded 80% over 5 years, 71% over 7 years, and 70% over 10 years, signaling the start of another upward cycle.
Weekly Seasonality on Gasoline:
Gasoline’s Weekly Price Movements: Historical Trends
- Monday: The only mixed session, with long positions succeeding 52% over 5 years but falling to 50%, and 54% over 7 and 10 years.
- Tuesday – Friday: A consistently bullish trend, with long trades prevailing across all timeframes.
Daily Seasonality on Gasoline (Strong Days):
Key Dates with Strong Trading Consistency
- Best Long Trades: February 12th, May 16th, June 18th, and November 21st have recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10 years.
- Best Short Trades: August 1st has historically achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year span.
Best Long Trades on Gasoline (Bullish Setups):
Mid- March – Mid-May: Strongest Bullish Phase
Gasoline prices typically experience a seasonal rally during this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 70% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 17,3%)
- 71,4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 20,3%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 27,6%)
Best Short Trade on Gasoline(Bearish Setups):
Mid-May- Mid-August: Peak Bearish Season
Gasoline prices typically experience a seasonal drop during this period, with Short positions prevailing:
- 80% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 16,7%)
- 71,4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 16,6%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 16,2%)
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