Lean Hogs (HE) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Lean Hogs Futures display a recurring seasonal pattern influenced by livestock production cycles, feed prices, and shifts in pork demand across global and domestic markets. The following is a breakdown of Lean Hogs’ historical price performance throughout the year based on seasonal behavior.
Monthly Seasonality on Lean Hogs:
Lean Hogs Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness
January – May: Predominantly Bullish Phase
January: The year kicks off with moderate bullish sentiment, often supported by reduced winter supply and steady post-holiday processing demand.
February: The bullish trend gains momentum as futures begin pricing in reduced hog weights and seasonal declines in production.
March: A transition month, with a balance between short-term selling and anticipation of spring demand — leading to mixed positioning.
April: Historically a strong bullish month, supported by rising grilling season demand and tighter spot availability.
May: Bullish sentiment typically peaks in May, with long positions dominating ahead of Memorial Day and summer demand.
June – August: Bearish to Neutral Period
June: A bearish month historically, as slaughter rates increase and supplies build seasonally.
July: Short pressure typically continues, with supply still ample and demand beginning to level off.
August: Often a mixed or stabilizing month, where prices may bottom out ahead of fall buying activity.
September – October: Seasonal Rebalancing
September: A neutral-to-bullish month, where tighter supply and export orders can lift futures, though volatility persists.
October: Often a turnaround month, with long trades gaining strength as packers and processors prepare for holiday demand.
November – December: Bullish Year-End
November: A renewed bullish phase driven by seasonal consumption (Thanksgiving/holiday), lighter hog weights, and export demand.
December: A strong month for long positioning, with historical strength due to constrained supply, cold weather, and year-end processor activity.
Weekly Seasonality on Lean Hogs:
Lean Hogs Weekly Price Movements: Historical Trends
Monday: The week kicks off with slightly bearish sentiment, as short positions marginally outweigh longs — 51% short (5Y), 50% (7Y), and 51% (10Y). While not overly aggressive, sellers tend to have a minor edge.
Tuesday: The tone shifts to moderately bullish, with long trades leading at 53% (5Y & 7Y) and 51% (10Y), making Tuesday the most consistently bullish day of the week.
Wednesday: Midweek holds a bullish bias, continuing the upward momentum with long positions prevailing 52% (5Y), 53% (7Y), and 54% (10Y).
Thursday: Momentum reverses slightly, with short positioning reasserting itself — 54% (5Y & 10Y), 53% (7Y), reflecting a subtle shift back to bearish pressure.
Friday: The week ends on a neutral-to-bearish note, with short trades narrowly dominating — 50% (5Y), 52% (7Y & 10Y), indicating mild hedging pressure into the weekend.
Daily Seasonality on Lean Hogs (Strong days):
Key dates with strong historical trading consistency:
- Best Long Trades: May 16th and October 8th have recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10-year periods.
- Best Short Trades: January 13th, May 22nd, June 5th, August 21st, and December 4th have historically achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year span.
Best Long Trades on Lean Hogs (Bullish Setups):
December – March: Strongest Bullish Phase
Lean Hogs prices historically experience a seasonal rally during this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 90% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 21,7%)
- 100% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 20,3%)
- 100% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 26%)
Best Short Trade on Lean Hogs (Bearish Setups)
July: Peak Bearish Season
Lean Hogs prices typically experience a seasonal decline during this period, with short positions dominating:
- 80% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 17,5%)
- 85,7% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 14,6%)
- 80% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 12,1%)
