Lumber (LB) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Lumber follows a well-defined seasonal pattern influenced by construction demand, housing market cycles, and weather-related supply factors. Below is a detailed breakdown of Lumber’s historical seasonality.
Monthly Seasonality on Lumber:
Natural Gas Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year
January – February: Strong Bullish Start
- January: The year begins with a strong bullish sentiment, with long positions historically dominating across multiple timeframes.
- February: The upward trend continues, with long positions prevailing and supporting the seasonal rally.
March: Mixed Sentiment
- March: A transition month, showing both long and short positions, leading to increased volatility. March has a win rate of 57% for Short positions over 7 Years.
April: Bullish Momentum Resumes
- April: A strong month for long trades, with historical data showing consistent bullish performance.
May: Mixed Sentiment
- May: While historically bullish, some short positioning emerges, making it a mixed month.
June: Continued Bullish Trend
- June: Despite seasonal volatility, long positions maintain an advantage.
July: Predominantly Bearish Month
- July: A key shorting month, as historical trends indicate short positions dominate across multiple timeframes.
August: Bullish Rebound
- August: The market trends upward again, with long trades outperforming short positions.
September – October: Mixed Sentiment
- September: The bearish trend slows, leading to uncertainty and mixed positioning in the market.
- October: A partial worsening, where Short positions begin to regain strength, short positions still having much influence.
November – December: Strong Bullish Close
- November: The market shifts back into bullish territory, with long positions gradually regaining dominance.
- December: The strongest month for long trades, closing the year with sustained upward momentum.
Monthly average
100% LONG
50% LONG
0%
50% SHORT
100% SHORT
Weekly Seasonality on Lumber:
Monday:
- Short positions: 51%-55%
- Short positions remain close behind, making Monday a prevalently Short trading day.
Tuesday:
- Short positions: 57%-53%
- A Bearish day, with long trades historically outperforming by a significant margin.
Wednesday:
- Long positions: 57%-55%
- Historically, Wednesday has exhibited the strongest bullish momentum, with long positions consistently prevailing.
Thursday:
- Short positions: 58%-53%.
- Prevalently Bearish trend.
Friday:
- Short positions: 53% across all timeframes
- Friday tends to maintain a Bearish trend.
Daily Seasonality on Lumber (Strong days):
Key dates with strong historical trading consistency:
- Best Long Trades: January 15, July 3, November 18, and December 17 have achieved a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10-year periods.
- Best Short Trades: May 29–30, June 23, and November 25 have historically recorded a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year span.
Best Long Trades on Lumber (Bullish Setups):
June: Buy the Rally
This period marks a peak phase for Lumber, characterized by a strong bullish sentiment. Long positions have historically prevailed:
- 70% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 16,5%)
- 57.1% over 7 years (Average Return 21,9%)
- 60% over 5 years (Average Return 23,2%)
Best Short Trade on Lumber (Bearish Setups)
Intra September trade:
An interesting but risky short on Lumber typically shows up during this period, with short positions dominating:
- 60% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 15,4%)
- 71.4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 16,7%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 18,8%)
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