Milk (DC) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Class III Milk Futures exhibit a defined seasonal pattern, driven largely by dairy production cycles, feed costs, and shifting consumer demand throughout the year. Below is a detailed breakdown of historical price trends based on seasonal flows.
Monthly Seasonality on Milk:
Class III Milk Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness
January – February: Bearish Start
January: The year opens with bearish pressure, with short positions dominating across all timeframes (60% over 5, 7, and 10 years).
February: Sentiment remains weak to neutral, with mixed data — 60% short on 5Y and 7Y, but a shift toward 50% long in the 10Y range suggests slight recovery.
March – May: Strong Bullish Phase
March: A bullish pivot month, with long positions prevailing at 60% (5Y), 57% (7Y), and 50% (10Y), pointing to increasing buying activity.
April: A historically strong month for long trades, with long dominance of 60% (5Y), 71% (7Y), and 60% (10Y).
May: The bullish momentum peaks, with long positions at 80% (5Y), 86% (7Y), and 70% (10Y) — making it one of the most favorable months for upside movement.
June – October: Bearish to Mixed Phase
June: A clearly bearish month, with strong short dominance: 60% (5Y), 71% (7Y), and 56% (10Y).
July: Recovery attempts begin, with long positions resurging to 60% (5Y), 57% (7Y), and 50% (10Y).
August: Sentiment remains mixed, with long positions at 57% (7Y), 60% (10Y), but short bias still evident in the 5Y (60%).
September: A neutral month, with a relatively balanced split: long 60% (5Y), 57% (7Y), and 50% (10Y).
October: Remains bearish, with short positions prevailing across all timeframes — 60% (5Y), 57% (7Y), 60% (10Y).
November – December: Moderate Bullish Close
November: A mild bullish bias emerges, with long positions showing at 60% (5Y), 57% (7Y), and 50% (10Y).
December: A supportive close to the year, led by long trades at 60% (5Y), 50% (10Y).
Weekly Seasonality on Milk:
Class III Milk Weekly Price Movements: Historical Trends
Monday: The week begins with a clear bearish tone, as short positions dominate — reaching 54% (5Y), 58% (7Y), and 60% (10Y).
Tuesday: The bearish trend intensifies, marking one of the weakest days of the week. Short trades hold firm at 60% (5Y & 7Y), and 61% over 10 years.
Wednesday: Short sentiment persists midweek, with short positioning still in control — 56% (5Y), 57% (7Y), and 59% (10Y).
Thursday: No relief for bulls, as short positions continue to prevail — 55% (5Y), 56% (7Y), and 56% (10Y), reflecting continued downside pressure.
Friday: The week closes with bearish dominance still intact. Short trades lead at 59% (5Y & 7Y) and 61% (10Y), making it the most consistently short-biased day alongside Tuesday.
Daily Seasonality on Milk (Strong days):
Key dates with strong historical trading consistency:
- Best Long Trades: December 2nd has recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10-year periods.
- Best Short Trades: January 30th, April 3rd, 23rd, 27th, and 29th, May 24th and 29th, July 3rd, 15th, and 16th, and September 3rd have historically achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year span.
Best Long Trades on Milk (Bullish Setups):
August–October: Strongest Bullish Phase
Milk prices historically experience a seasonal rally during this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 50% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 7,6%)
- 71,4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 7,6%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 9,6%)
Best Short Trade on Milk (Bearish Setups)
October – December: Peak Bearish Season
Milk prices typically experience a seasonal decline during this period, with short positions dominating:
- 70% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 10,8%)
- 71,4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 12,1%)
- 80% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 13,2%)
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