Natural Gas (NG) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns

Last modified: March 19, 2025

Monthly Seasonality on Natural Gas

Weekly Seasonality on Natural Gas

Daily Seasonality on Natural Gas (Strong days)

Best Long Trades on Natural Gas (Bullish Setups)

Best Short Trades on Natural Gas (Bearish Setups)

Natural Gas (NGUSD) seasonality in financial markets is a well-documented phenomenon where Natural Gas prices tend to follow recurring patterns throughout the year. Here’s an analysis of the main characteristics of Natural Gas’s seasonality.

Monthly Seasonality on Natural Gas:

Natural Gas Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year

January – March: Natural Gas typically starts the year with a bearish sentiment, as short positions dominate:
- January: Short positions succeed 80% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
- February: Bearish momentum continues, with short positions succeeding 70% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
- March: The trend remains bearish, with short positions prevailing 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
April – May: Bullish sentiment strengthens, with long positions outperforming:
- April: Long positions succeed 90% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 100% over 5 years.
- May: The bullish trend continues but weakens slightly, with long positions succeeding 50% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
June – July: A mixed sentiment period marked by volatility. Short positions generally prevail:
- June: Short positions succeed 60% over 5 years and 71% over 7 years.
- July: Short positions maintain strength, succeeding 57% over 7 years and 70% over 10 years, while long positions succeed 60% over 10 years.
August – September: A strong bullish period, with long positions dominating:
- August: Long positions succeed 90% over 10 years, 100% over 7 years, and 100% over 5 years.
- September: The trend remains bullish, with long positions prevailing 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
October – November: Another mixed sentiment period characterized by volatility, with no clear trend between long and short positions.
December: A strong bearish period for Natural Gas, with short positions historically succeeding 80% over 5 years, 86% over 7 years, and 70% over 10 years.

Monthly average

100% LONG

50% LONG

50% SHORT

100% SHORT

Weekly Seasonality on Natural Gas:

Natural Gas’s Weekly Price Movement: Historical Tendencies for Gains

Monday: Displays a slightly mixed sentiment, with long positions prevailing 54% over 5 years and 53% over 7 years, while short positions succeed 51% of the time over 5 years.
Tuesday: Shows a clearer bullish tone, with long positions dominating 54% over 5 and 7 years, and 55% over 10 years.
Wednesday: Historically a weak day for Natural Gas, with long positioning at 53% across different timeframes.
Thursday – Friday: The market tends to favor short positioning, with 52%-54% short signals on average.

Tuesdays have historically exhibited the strongest bullish momentum, while Fridays tend to be the weakest.

Daily Seasonality on Natural Gas (Strong days):

Examining daily strategies that have historically succeeded, we can identify a few standout dates.

Long Trades: January 27th, January 30th, March 24th, March 30th, July 22nd, and September 12th have all recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10 Years.
Short Trades: Historically, for Natural Gas, there are two dates that have achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year time frame: August 5th and October 16th.