Orange Juice (OJ) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Orange Juice follows a well-defined seasonal pattern influenced by harvest cycles, weather conditions, and global demand. Below is a detailed breakdown of Orange Juice’s historical seasonality
Monthly Seasonality on Orange Juice:
Orange Juice Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness
January – May: Mixed and Predominantly Bullish Phase
- January: A mixed month, where both long and short positions are present, creating some volatility.
- February: Another mixed sentiment month, with both long and short positions active, leading to fluctuations.
- March: The bullish trend takes hold, with long positions prevailing across all timeframes.
- April: A transition month, where both long and short trades are active, making it a more uncertain period.
- May: A strong bullish month, with long positions dominating, marking one of the best months for long trades.
June – August: Bearish and Bullish Shifts
- June: A strong bearish month, where short positions dominate across all timeframes, leading to downward pressure.
- July: A mixed month, where both long and short positions show influence, creating uncertainty in price movements.
- August: A bullish month, where long positions regain dominance, pushing prices higher.
September – October: Bearish to Bullish Recovery
- September: A bearish month, with short positions dominating, signaling temporary weakness.
- October: A strong recovery month, where long positions prevail, shifting momentum back in favor of bulls.
November – December: Mixed and Bearish Close to the Year
- November: A bullish month, where long positions dominate across all timeframes, reinforcing a strong uptrend.
- December: A bearish month, where short positions prevail, leading to a market pullback to close the year.
Monthly average
100% LONG
50% LONG
0%
50% SHORT
100% SHORT
Weekly Seasonality on Orange Juice:
Orange Juice’s Weekly Price Movements: Historical Trends
- Monday: A bearish start to the week, with short positions dominating at 57% over 5 years, 63% over 7 years, and 59% over 10 years, making it the weakest trading day.
- Tuesday: A strong bullish session, with long positions prevailing at 61% over 5 years, while 54% dominates over 7 and 10 years, marking a clear shift in momentum.
- Wednesday: A bullish continuation, as long positions lead at 54% over 5 years, 53% over 7 years, and 51% over 10 years, reinforcing upward movement.
- Thursday: Another bullish day, where long positions dominate at 54% over 5 years, and 52% over 7 and 10 years, maintaining strong buying pressure.
- Friday: A strong close to the week, with long positions prevailing at 59% over 5 and 7 years, while still holding 56% over 10 years, confirming bullish momentum.
Daily Seasonality on Orange Juice (Strong days):
Key dates with strong historical trading consistency:
- Best Long Trades: February 23 and September 4 have recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over periods of 5, 7, and 10 years.
- Best Short Trades: January 16, May 29, and June 18 have historically achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year span.
Best Long Trades on Orange Juice (Bullish Setups):
February – June: Strongest Bullish Phase
Orange Juice prices historically experience a seasonal rally during this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 70% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 20,3%)
- 85,7% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 21,3%)
- 100% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 22,9%)
Best Short Trade on Orange Juice (Bearish Setups)
December – Mid-February: Peak Bearish Season
Orange Juice prices typically experience a seasonal decline during this period, with short positions dominating:
- 70% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 16,7%)
- 57,1% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 18,4%)
- 60% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 19,3%)
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