Palladium (PA) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns

Last modified: March 19, 2025

Monthly Seasonality on Palladium

Weekly Seasonality on Palladium

Daily Seasonality on Palladium (Strong days)

Best Long Trades on Palladium (Bullish Setups)

Best Short Trades on Palladium (Bearish Setups)

Palladium (PA) follows a well-defined seasonal pattern influenced by industrial demand, automotive production, and global supply constraints. Below is a detailed breakdown of Palladium’s historical seasonality.

Monthly Seasonality on Palladium:

Palladium Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness

January – March: Mixed Sentiment with a Bullish Edge

January: The market starts with 60% short dominance, but some long positioning is still present, creating mixed conditions.
February: A stronger bullish month, with long positions prevailing 71% over 7 years and 70% over 10 years, indicating a temporary rally.
March: A volatile month with no clear trend, as long and short positions remain balanced.

April – May: Transition into Bearish Territory

April: A neutral month, with long positions having a slight edge at 60%, while short positions maintain pressure.
May: A key bearish month, where short trades dominate 80% over 5 years, 71% over 7 years, and 70% over 10 years, making it one of the weakest periods for Palladium.

June – August: Predominantly Bearish Phase

June: Short positions remain strong, prevailing 71% over 5 years and 60% over 10 years, extending the downturn.
July: A period of mixed sentiment, with 50% long and 50% short positioning, creating an uncertain outlook.
August: Another bearish month, with short positions dominating 57% over 7 years and 50% over 10 years, keeping downward pressure on prices.

September – October: Strongest Bullish Period

September: A standout bullish month, with long positions succeeding 80% over 5 years, 86% over 7 years, and 80% over 10 years, making it one of the best periods for long trades.
October: A transition month, with a slight bullish bias, as long positions begin to outweigh short positions.

November – December: Bullish Close to the Year

November: A mixed but slightly bullish month, with long trades prevailing 80% over 5 years and 57% over 7 years, signaling a market recovery.
December: A strong bullish month, with long positions dominating 71% over 7 years and 70% over 10 years, supporting year-end strength.

Monthly average

100% LONG

50% LONG

50% SHORT

100% SHORT

Weekly Seasonality on Palladium:

Monday: Slightly Bullish Start

Long positions: 50% (10 Years)-52% (5 Years)
A neutral to slightly bullish session, with no strong directional bias but a slight edge for long trades.

Tuesday: Bearish Day

Short positions: 54% over 5 years
Historically, Tuesday has been the weakest day, with short trades prevailing more frequently in recent years.

Wednesday: Mixed but Slightly Bearish

Long positions: 51% (7 Years)-52% (10 Years)
Short positions: 52% over 5 years
Wednesday presents a more balanced outlook, though long trades slightly edge out on the 10 Years frame short positions dominate in in most recent timeframes.

Thursday: The Most Bullish Day

Long positions: 52% across all timeframes
A stronger bullish session, where long trades have historically outperformed.

Friday: Bearish Close to the Week

Short positions: 53% over 5 years
Long positions: 50% (7 Years)-51% (10 Years)
While long trades have been slightly favored over 7 and 10 years, the 5-year trend shows a bearish tendency.

Daily Seasonality on Palladium (Strong days):

Examining daily strategies that have historically succeeded, we can identify a few standout dates.

Long Trades: February 12, April 9, and August 10 have all recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10-year periods.
Short Trades: Historically, for Natural Gas, three dates have achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year time frame: April 22, May 1, and October 27.

Best Long Trades on Palladium (Bullish Setups):

November–March: Buy the Rally

This period marks a peak phase for Palladium, characterized by a strong bullish sentiment. Long positions have historically prevailed:

60% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 26,1%)
57.1% over 7 years (Average Return 31,6%)
40% over 5 years (Average Return 45,2%)

Although this trade has an interesting return, be careful as probably the correlation of current with past prices has been week in the last years, providing a negative performance on this trade.