Silver (SI) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Silver’s price movements exhibit recurring seasonal patterns influenced by various factors such as industrial demand, inflation expectations, and investor sentiment. Below is an in-depth look at Silver’s historical seasonality.
Monthly Seasonality on Silver
Silver Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year
January – March: A Mixed Start with Short-Term Weakness
- January: Silver tends to show mixed performance, with long positions succeeding 70% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
- February: Bearish sentiment strengthens, with short positions succeeding 80% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 70% over 5 years.
- March: A slight recovery, with long positions succeeding 50% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
April – May: A Strong Bullish Phase
- April: Historically bullish, with long positions succeeding 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
- May: The uptrend continues, with long positions succeeding 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
June – July: A Consolidation Phase
- June: Short positions succeed 100% over 5 years, 86% over 7 years and 80% over 10 years .
- July: Long positions succeed 57% over 7 years and 70% over 10 years, with short positions prevailing 60% over 10 years.
August – September: Strong Bullish Momentum
- August: A historically strong month, with long positions succeeding 90% over 10 years, 100% over 7 years, and 100% over 5 years.
- September: The bullish trend continues, with long positions prevailing 60% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
October – November: Volatility Returns
- Silver experiences higher volatility in these months, with no clear dominance between long and short positions.
December: A Bearish Close
- Short positions historically succeed 80% over 5 years, 86% over 7 years, and 70% over 10 years.
Weekly Seasonality on Silver:
Silver Weekly Price Movement: Historical Tendencies for Gains
- Monday: Displays a slightly mixed sentiment, with long positions prevailing 54% over 5 years and 53% over 7 years, while short positions succeed 51% of the time over 5 years.
- Tuesday: Shows a clearer bullish tone, with long positions dominating 54% over 5 and 7 years, and 55% over 10 years.
- Wednesday: Historically a weak day for Silver, with long positioning at 53% across different timeframes.
- Thursday – Friday: The market tends to favor short positioning, with 52%-54% short signals on average.
Tuesdays have historically exhibited the strongest bullish momentum, while Fridays tend to be the weakest.
Daily Seasonality on Silver (Strong days):
Examining daily strategies that have historically succeeded, we can identify a few standout dates.
Long Trades: January 27th, January 30th, March 24th, March 30th, July 22nd, and September 12th have all recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10 Years.
Short Trades: Historically, for Natural Gas, there are two dates that have achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year time frame: August 5th and October 16th.
Best Long Trades on Silver (Bullish Setups):
Mid-March – Mid-April: Buy the Rally
This period marks a peak phase for Silver, characterized by a strong bullish sentiment. Long positions have historically prevailed:
- 80% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 9,8%)
- 71,4% over 7 years (Average Return 12%)
- 80% over 5 years (Average Return 14,4%)
Best Short Trade on Silver (Bearish Setups)
June: Price Drop
Silver prices tend to Drop In June.
Enter short positions in June and exit at the end of the Month, before prices rebound.
