Soybeans (ZS) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns
Last modified: March 19, 2025
Soybeans exhibit a well-established seasonal pattern shaped by planting and harvesting cycles, export demand, and weather conditions in key growing regions. Below is a detailed breakdown of Soybeans’ historical seasonality.
Monthly Seasonality on Soybeans:
Soybeans Monthly Seasonality: Cycles of Strength and Weakness
January – February: Bullish Start to the Year
January: A historically bullish month, with long positions dominating at 60% (5Y), 71% (7Y), and 70% (10Y).
February: Bullish sentiment continues, though with slightly less conviction. Long positions remain dominant across all timeframes (60%–57%), with 50% still long on the 10Y.
March – April: Mixed Sentiment
March: A volatile month, showing a fairly balanced sentiment. Short positions take the lead in the 5Y and 7Y view (60%, 57%), while the 10Y is neutral.
April: Another mixed month, with short positioning on the 5Y and 7Y (60%, 57%), but a neutral 10Y (50% long).
May – July: Clear Bearish Phase
May: One of the weakest months, with consistent short positioning across all timeframes (60% short in 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y).
June: A mixed setup — 60% long on the 10Y, but short bias on the 5Y and 7Y at 60% each.
July: A strongly bearish month. Short positions dominate across 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y at 80%, 71%, and 70% respectively.
August – September: Transition Period
August: Mixed sentiment again, with long bias in the 5Y and 7Y (60%, 57%), but 60% short in the 10Y.
September: A similar mixed picture, long-dominated in the 7Y (70%) but short in the 5Y and 10Y (57% and 60%).
October – December: Strong Bullish Finish
October: A classic bullish month. Long positions dominate across the board (80% in 5Y and 10Y, 71% in 7Y).
November: Bullish sentiment continues, with long positioning between 50%–60% across timeframes.
December: A very strong bullish close to the year, with long positioning reaching 80% (5Y), 86% (7Y), and 60% (10Y).
Weekly Seasonality on Soybeans:
Soybean’s Weekly Price Movements: Historical Trends
Monday: A mixed session, with no clear edge. Long positions are at 50% (5Y), while short trades dominate slightly at 50% (7Y) and 52% (10Y).
Tuesday: Another neutral day, showing a slight bullish bias with long trades prevailing at 51% across both 7Y and 10Y timeframes, and 50% short on the 5Y.
Wednesday: The most bullish day of the week, with long positions clearly leading at 57% (5Y), 54% (7Y), and 53% (10Y).
Thursday: A slightly bearish session, as Short trades show 52%–53%.
Friday: A bullish close to the week, with long trades prevailing at 52% (5Y), 53% (7Y), and 52% (10Y), suggesting traders position long ahead of the weekend.
Daily Seasonality on Soybeans (Strong days):
Key dates with strong historical trading consistency:
- Best Long Trades: May 27, June 2, and December 3 have recorded a 100% success rate for long trades over 5, 7, and 10 years.
- Best Short Trades: January 15, March 26, and November 26 have historically achieved a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year span.
Best Long Trades on Soybeans (Bullish Setups):
August – March: Strongest Bullish Phase
Soybeans prices historically experience a seasonal rally during this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 80% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 14,6%)
- 85,7% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 17%)
- 80% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 23,6%)
Best Short Trade on Soybeans (Bearish Setups)
June: Peak Bearish Season
Soybeans prices typically experience a seasonal decline during this period, with short positions dominating:
- 70% of the time over 10 years (Average Return 8,7%)
- 71,4% of the time over 7 years (Average Return 11,8%)
- 80% of the time over 5 years (Average Return 11,3%)
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