Wheat (KE) Seasonality: Best and Worst Months, Weekly Trends, and Key Trading Patterns

Last modified: March 19, 2025

Monthly Seasonality on Wheat

Weekly Seasonality on Wheat

Daily Seasonality on Wheat (Strong Days)

Best Long Trades on Wheat (Bullish Setups)

Best Short Trade on Wheat (Bearish Setups)

Wheat Futures exhibit strong seasonal trends influenced by planting and harvest cycles, weather patterns, and global demand. Below is a detailed analysis of Wheat’s historical seasonality.

Monthly Seasonality on Wheat:

Wheat Monthly Seasonality: Trends of Strength and Weakness Throughout the Year

December – February: A Short Period
- December: A month characterized by short trends. Short positions have historically succeeded 60% of the time over 5 years, 57% over 7 years, and maintained a 60% success rate over 10 years.
- January: A period of uncertainty, with short positions continuing to succeed 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
- February: The bullish trend strengthens slightly, with long positions prevailing 70% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
March – May: Strong Bullish Momentum
- March: The year’s uptrend begins, with long positions outperforming 60% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years.
- April: A period of continued gains, with long positions succeeding 70% over 10 years, 71% over 7 years, and 70% over 5 years.
- May: The rally strengthens, with long positions prevailing 50% over 10 years, 57% over 7 years, and 60% over 5 years.
June – July: Short Period
- June: Market conditions weaken, with short positions succeeding 70% over 10 years, 86% over 7 years, and 80% over 5 years, though some signals of short-term reversals emerge.
- July: Another month where short positions dominate.
August – September
- August: A month of mixed sentiment. Long positions dominate with an 80% win rate over 5 years and 57% over 7 years, while short positions have a larger win rate of 60% over 10 years.
- September: Long positions prevail with a win rate of 80% over both 5 and 10 years.
October – November: Inverse Months
- October and November exhibit the same probability of success but with inverse trading options. Both months show a success rate of 60% over 5 years, 57% over 7 years, and 70% over 10 years. October is a favorable month for short positions, while November favors the opposite (long positions).

Monthly average

100% LONG

50% LONG

50% SHORT

100% SHORT

Weekly Seasonality on Wheat:

Wheat’s Weekly Price Movement: Historical Trends

Monday to Friday: A mixed-sentiment dataset. Although it’s a close call, short positions prevail on all days except Friday. However, over the past 10 years, long positions have succeeded only by 51% on Fridays.

Daily Seasonality on Wheat (Strong Days):

Analyzing historical daily trends, these dates stand out:

Best Long Trades: February 18 has historically achieved a 100% success rate for long trades over 5- and 7-year periods.
Best Short Trades: July 2 has consistently recorded a 100% success rate for short trades over a 10-year period.

Best Long Trades on Wheat(Bullish Setups):

December–June: Bullish Trade

Wheat prices historically rally in this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 60% over 10 years (Average Return 20%)
- 71,4% over 7 years (Average Return 22,7%)
- 80% over 5 years (Average Return 19,6%)

Best Short Trade on Wheat (Bearish Setups):

March – July: Strongest Bullish Period

Wheat prices historically drop in this period, with long positions prevailing:
- 90% over 10 years (Average Return 11,7%)
- 85% over 7 years (Average Return 14,2%)
- 80% over 5 years (Average Return 17%)